The (Sort-Of) Unexpected Stagnation of the Latino Vote

Yikes man.

The wildest, wackiest, most stressful, most polarizing, most dangerous (we’re in a pandemic, in case you forgot), and most consequential presidential election in modern American history is finally over (almost…we just have to wait for Trump to finally admit defeat). Highest turnout is over a century, both candidates breaking overall votership records, third-parties completely obliterated, and pretty much every voting block imaginable showing up in surprising and strong numbers.

But it was quite the stressful week, feeling like a sporting event as we were watching lead changes, unexpected surprises, and a close match all the way to the final innings of play---when the game turned out to be not close at all. Even though Joe Biden crushed it in the popular vote, the cursed ridiculous ways of the Electoral College made the battle closer than it ever should have been. For the second election in a row, the rest of the planet was watching us with anticipation, then worry, then straight-up confusion as to why Republican courts decided to complicate methods in tallying the results---and then toss the voting process they helped create to the supreme courts.

The 2020 Election has revealed a lot about how we are and where we are as a country---which has some good signs, some bad signs, and some outrageously ugly signs. Whether it’s the rise of white supremacy in politics, the polarizing status of the country causing divides within communities, the rising voting power of select minority groups, and even the in-fighting that has emerged in Democrats and will also emerge in Republicans, this election even without all the results coming out has revealed many realities that we’re going to have to confront in the coming years as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris battles the coronavirus, battles a broken economy, and takes on the shifting moral code that has corrupted the country into something that has shocked and even frightened neighboring countries and allies.

But we have to talk about the Latino vote.

Arguably the most frustrating and devastating part of the Trump Administration was all the divisive rhetoric and polarizing behavior that started right out of the gate with the Muslim Ban. But the biggest ordeal during this administration was the vilifying of Latin America, as we saw conflicts and controversies related to Mexico, Puerto Rico (probably the biggest victim), Haiti, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, and all the immigrants and migrants coming from these regions.

Latin Americans have also become the victims of severely-increased incarceration rates as well as rise in hate crimes, racist attacks, and targeted harassment. Latin America has been under attack for the last decade, and whenever there is such intense abuse, one seeks avenues on which to escape.

Not only did we have conflicts, but the election season was also full of disinformation aimed at the Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans in South Florida in order to garnish support for Trump. But surely, there’s no way that after everything we’ve seen in the last four years we Latinos are going to fall for that trap. Right?

Right?

So the truth is, even if ALL Latinos and Black Americans had voted Biden in Florida, the state STILL would have gone to Donald Trump. This is proof that White America’s support for the dicktator was very strong in some regions---with Florida being included. Whether its because of Florida’s rejection of Black Lives Matter and Defund the Police, their ugly generational disdain for minorities in a majority of the state, their ability to re-open the economy before everyone else in spite of the pandemic, or because White America just didn’t want to lose that power they had just earned, Donald Trump remains a strong presence in the Sunshine State. But THAT conversation is for another day.

Nonetheless, the Latino vote practically remaining stagnant in the 2020 election results on paper appears to be a discouraging sign about the state of Latino America’s relationship with the Democratic Party---the party that fights for them way way wayyyy more than the Republicans. Let’s not forget actions of the Republican Party towards Central and South America during the brutal Operation Condor era, whose consequences remains extremely relevant today.

It might be my advantage and privilege of living in Central Florida, but in my lifetime experience, for the most part Latinos do get along fine. Outside of soccer and baseball, there’s not really animosity against one another. As part of the Latino culture, we tend to look out for one another, share similar habits, similar cuisine, of course share the language of Spanish, and even in deeper aspects like religion and family values the Latino community is a generally united one. The scenario gets blurry when we reach topics of race, but overall we are a good united group at its core. So even if we come from different countries, we are relatively reliable as a united force. Or so I thought.

And I’m not saying that I’m basing my evidence on my account and the account of this one woman, but the IHOP I used to work that was started by a Uruguayan-American woman back in the 1970s. She constantly visited, always requested me to serve her, and we’d have these elongated conversations about life. She once told me that in her entire life, she’s never met a Latino or Latina that she did not get along with. Nearly all of my Latino friends have these same sentiments, outside the jokes and jabs and aggressive verbal battles during the World Cup, Latinos for the most part share a bond that starts from language and continues through music, cuisine, and overall culture.

So what happened?

If we look a little deeper we might see something, something the media whether completely ignores or doesn’t catch: Latinos wanted Bernie Sanders, not the man who was part of an administration that jump-started the anti-Latinx sentiments we see today. Mix that up with the disinformation campaign in South Florida, the lack of attention towards Latin American problems and values, and the sheer fatigue of being Latino in modern supremacist USA and you have a still low Latino turnout, and regions in Florida and Texas consisting of Latinos turning towards Trump.

Look, I’m not justifying the Latino vote for Trump, because EVERYONE that voted for Trump is a disappointment through and through, but I am merely explaining that there were definitely mistakes in the way the Biden campaign handled the election race in this department. With proper campaigning and planning, Biden easily should have gotten at least 75% of the Latino vote. But they wildly missed the mark. And to be honest, maybe we underestimated that anger that has remained in the Latino community towards Biden since 2008 when him and Obama deported more Latinos than any administration up to that point----and Trump’s deportation numbers are actually LOWER than that of Barack Obama.

So while the media considers the Latino struggle occurring since Trump, its been actually happening for generations, and reached fever pitch during the late Bush years and the Obama administration. But our pleas fell on deaf ears during Obama’s final years and only finally made it to mainstream media after the white supremacist administration tripled down on Obama’s rather anti-Latino rhetoric, which led to the rise in ICE atrocities, rise in hate crimes, and worst of all the severe mistreatment of migrants at the border.

On the other hand, Biden’s main opponent during the primaries is arguably the most popular politicians among the young Latino and liberal Latino crowd. Bernie Sanders (prior to him dropping out) won California, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, while nearly winning Texas. What do they all have in common? Each of these states have a population that has a Latino demographic percentage of at least 13%---with California being the largest and most important Democratic state being 38% Latino and overall having the most Latinos in the entire country. Bernie easily won the Latino vote on each of these regions (and especially in Texas, which almost led to an upset win in a usually-conservative region), and prior to the Super Tuesday controversy of him suddenly having to take on a superpowered Joe Biden and all the centrists that joined his campaign, had the lead. It feels like forever ago, but it appeared that Bernie Sanders was on his way to being the nominee. But we all know what happened afterwards.

Bernie Sanders led a campaign that even though ultimately flamed out because of a mix of pandemic safety issues, not having many major supporters, and the threat of splitting the vote and helping Trump, was a very successful campaign in terms of recruiting and invigorating the Latino vote. Even though Latinos ultimately voted for Biden, the numbers remained the same from the 2016 election despite all the atrocities committed towards Latinx. And I can guarantee you that Bernie’s loss and the lack of focus towards us Latinos led to millions of them deciding not to vote out of frustration.

Even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pointed this out during an Instagram livestream after yet another Republican political victory of the supreme court nomination while we were still mourning Ginsburg---she sympathized with frustrated and fatigued voters and all but admitted that she would be fine if they didn’t vote. After all, the 6-3 tip towards Republicans was definitely going to threaten minority and immigrant rights for the next generation. And after all, AOC saw her choice build a surmountable lead, only to see it disappear in seconds. So even though the turnout was extremely strong from all voters—the Latino vote was a little bit of a no-show considering the stakes.

But Cuba showed up.

The biggest opposition to the existence of Bernie and the Squad comes from South Florida, who has a Caribbean/South American population that hates socialism more than even racism. Say what you will about the concept of socialism, but the word mixed in with dictators and communist regimes remains an extremely sour topic for Cubans and Venezuelans that fled their homelands. Let’s also not forget Nicaragua, who literally saw their former revolutionary leader turn against them and turn into a dictator. With Miami being the top destination for Latin immigrants of non-Mexican descent, and you have a cluster of citizens that refuses to see the United States potentially fall into that trap. So combine this with Republicans spending heavy to spread disinformation and fearful tactics to scare the Latinos to voting for them, and you have a South Floridian (especially Cuban) turnout that was way tighter than 2016, and it was enough to anger the Democrats into trying to understand what went wrong.

Cuban-America’s relationship with other Latin Americans is a bit frayed and more separated than the other countries, but that conversation is for another day. But nonetheless, despite the clear anti-Latino behavior of the administration, Cubans would rather be mistreated than be under a government with “socialist” ideas and policies. So they turned their backs on the rest of Latin America and overwhelmingly went to Trump. The biggest cause of the Latino surge for Trump comes from here----its not as nationwide as news pundits were suggesting. It was actually the Latino vote that turned out in Nevada and Arizona that prevented Trump picking up the states.

But at the end of the day, when the dust settles, the Democratic Party has to understand one major thing: they let down Latinos by siding with Biden, ignoring their plight, ignoring the signs from South Florida, and STILL not quite understanding how to help the demographic whose suffering has increased the most in the last half-decade. Even worse, unless they can figure out how to gain their support in levels Bernie Sanders was able to accomplish during the 2020 primaries, they are at risk of seeing their support slip further into the red, especially if many of the problems happening to Latin American immigrants continues deep into the upcoming Biden administration.